Why do hundreds of thousands online traders and investors trade the forex market every day, and how do they make money doing it?

Trade pairs, not currencies - Like any relationship, you have to know both sides. Success or failure in forex trading depends upon being right about both currencies and how they impact one another, not just one.

Knowledge is Power - When starting out trading forex online, it is essential that you understand the basics of this market if you want to make the most of your investments.

1. The main forex influencer is global news and events. For example, say an ECB statement is released on European interest rates which typically will cause a flurry of activity. Most newcomers react violently to news like this and close their positions and subsequently miss out on some of the best trading opportunities by waiting until the market calms down. The potential in the forex market is in the volatility, not in its tranquility.
   

2. Unambitious trading - Many new traders will place very tight orders in order to take very small profits. This is not a sustainable approach because although you may be profitable in the short run (if you are lucky), you risk losing in the longer term as you have to recover the difference between the bid and the ask price before you can make any profit and this is much more difficult when you make small trades than when you make larger ones.
   
3. Over-cautious trading - Like the trader who tries to take small incremental profits all the time, the trader who places tight stop losses with a retail forex broker is doomed. As we stated above, you have to give your position a fair chance to demonstrate its ability to produce. If you don't place reasonable stop losses that allow your trade to do so, you will always end up undercutting yourself and losing a small piece of your deposit with every trade.
   
4. Independence - If you are new to forex, you will either decide to trade your own money or to have a broker trade it for you. So far, so good. But your risk of losing increases exponentially if you either of these two things:
   

   Interfere with what your broker is doing on your behalf (as his strategy might require a long gestation period);
   

   Seek advice from too many sources - multiple input will only result in multiple losses. Take a position, ride with it and then analyse the outcome - by yourself, for yourself.
   

5. Tiny margins - Margin trading is one of the biggest advantages in trading forex as it allows you to trade amounts far larger than the total of your deposits. However, it can also be dangerous to novice traders as it can appeal to the greed factor that destroys many forex traders. The best guideline is to increase your leverage in line with your experience and success.
   
6. No strategy - The aim of making money is not a trading strategy. A strategy is your map for how you plan to make money. Your strategy details the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risk. Without a strategy, you may become one of the 90% of new traders that lose their money.
   
7. Trading Off-Peak Hours - Professional FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds posses a huge advantage over small retail traders during off-peak hours (between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they can hedge their positions and move them around when there is far small trade volume is going through (meaning their risk is smaller). The best advice for trading during off peak hours is simple - don't.
   
8. The only way is up/down - When the market is on its way up, the market is on its way up. When the market is going down, the market is going down. That's it. There are many systems which analyse past trends, but none that can accurately predict the future. But if you acknowledge to yourself that all that is happening at any time is that the market is simply moving, you'll be amazed at how hard it is to blame anyone else.
   
9. Trade on the news - Most of the really big market moves occur around news time. Trading volume is high and the moves are significant; this means there is no better time to trade than when news is released. This is when the big players adjust their positions and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow.
   
10. Exiting Trades - If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out. Don't compound your mistake by staying in and hoping for a reversal. If you're in a winning trade, don't talk yourself out of the position because you're bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.
    
11. Don't trade too short-term - If you are aiming to make less than 20 points profit, don't undertake the trade. The spread you are trading on will make the odds against you far too high.
    
12. Don't be smart - The most successful traders I know keep their trading simple. They don't analyse all day or research historical trends and track web logs and their results are excellent.
    
13. Tops and Bottoms - There are no real "bargains" in trading foreign exchange. Trade in the direction the price is going in and you're results will be almost guaranteed to improve.
    
14. Ignoring the technicals- Understanding whether the market is over-extended long or short is a key indicator of price action. Spikes occur in the market when it is moving all one way.
    
15. Emotional Trading - Without that all-important strategy, you're trades essentially are thoughts only and thoughts are emotions and a very poor foundation for trading. When most of us are upset and emotional, we don't tend to make the wisest decisions. Don't let your emotions sway you.
    
16. Confidence - Confidence comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it's very difficult to regain it; the trick is not to go off half-cocked; learn the business before you trade. Remember, knowledge is power.

The second and final part of this report clearly and simply details more essential tips on how to avoid the pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

1. Take it like a man - If you decide to ride a loss, you are simply displaying stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Sticking to a bad position ruins lots of traders - permanently. Try to remember that the market often behaves illogically, so don't get commit to any one trade; it's just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; it's ongoing regular performance over months and years that makes a good trader.
   
2. Focus - Fantasising about possible profits and then "spending" them before you have realised them is no good. Focus on your current position(s) and place reasonable stop losses at the time you do the trade. Then sit back and enjoy the ride - you have no real control from now on, the market will do what it wants to do.
   
3. Don't trust demos - Demo trading often causes new traders to learn bad habits. These bad habits, which can be very dangerous in the long run, come about because you are playing with virtual money. Once you know how your broker's system works, start trading small amounts and only take the risk you can afford to win or lose.
   
4. Stick to the strategy - When you make money on a well thought-out strategic trade, don't go and lose half of it next time on a fancy; stick to your strategy and invest profits on the next trade that matches your long-term goals.
   
5. Trade today - Most successful day traders are highly focused on what's happening in the short-term, not what may happen over the next month. If you're trading with 40 to 60-point stops focus on what's happening today as the market will probably move too quickly to consider the long-term future. However, the long-term trends are not unimportant; they will not always help you though if you're trading intraday.
   

6. The clues are in the details - The bottom line on your account balance doesn't tell the whole story. Consider individual trade details; analyse your losses and the telling losing streaks. Generally, traders that make money without suffering significant daily losses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance in the long term.
   

7. Simulated Results - Be very careful and wary about infamous "black box" systems. These so-called trading signal systems do not often explain exactly how the trade signals they generate are produced. Typically, these systems only show their track record of extraordinary results - historical results. Successfully predicting future trade scenarios is altogether more complex. The high-speed algorithmic capabilities of these systems provide significant retrospective trading systems, not ones which will help you trade effectively in the future.
   

8. Get to know one cross at a time - Each currency pair is unique, and has a unique way of moving in the marketplace. The forces which cause the pair to move up and down are individual to each cross, so study them and learn from your experience and apply your learning to one cross at a time.
9. Risk Reward - If you put a 20 point stop and a 50 point profit your chances of winning are probably about 1-3 against you. In fact, given the spread you're trading on, it's more likely to be 1-4. Play the odds the market gives you.
   

10. Trading for Wrong Reasons - Don't trade if you are bored, unsure or reacting on a whim. The reason that you are bored in the first place is probably because there is no trade to make in the first place. If you are unsure, it's probably because you can't see the trade to make, so don't make one.
    

11. Zen Trading- Even when you have taken a position in the markets, you should try and think as you would if you hadn't taken one. This level of detachment is essential if you want to retain your clarity of mind and avoid succumbing to emotional impulses and therefore increasing the likelihood of incurring losses. To achieve this, you need to cultivate a calm and relaxed outlook. Trade in brief periods of no more than a few hours at a time and accept that once the trade has been made, it's out of your hands.
    

12. Determination - Once you have decided to place a trade, stick to it and let it run its course. This means that if your stop loss is close to being triggered, let it trigger. If you move your stop midway through a trade's life, you are more than likely to suffer worse moves against you. Your determination must be show itself when you acknowledge that you got it wrong, so get out.
    

13. Short-term Moving Average Crossovers - This is one of the most dangerous trade scenarios for non professional traders. When the short-term moving average crosses the longer-term moving average it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. This is neither a bullish nor bearish indication, so don't fall into the trap of believing it is one.
    

14. Stochastic - Another dangerous scenario. When it first signals an exhausted condition that's when the big spike in the "exhausted" currency cross tends to occur. My advice is to buy on the first sign of an overbought cross and then sell on the first sign of an oversold one. This approach means that you'll be with the trend and have successfully identified a positive move that still has some way to go. So if percentage K and percentage D are both crossing 80, then buy! (This is the same on sell side, where you sell at 20).
    

15. One cross is all that counts - EURUSD seems to be trading higher, so you buy GBPUSD because it appears not to have moved yet. This is dangerous. Focus on one cross at a time - if EURUSD looks good to you, then just buy EURUSD.
    

16. Wrong Broker - A lot of FOREX brokers are in business only to make money from yours. Read forums, blogs and chats around the net to get an unbiased opinion before you choose your broker.
    
17. Too bullish - Trading statistics show that 90% of most traders will fail at some point. Being too bullish about your trading aptitude can be fatal to your long-term success. You can always learn more about trading the markets, even if you are currently successful in your trades. Stay modest, and keep your eyes open for new ideas and bad habits you might be falling in to.
    

18. Interpret forex news yourself - Learn to read the source documents of forex news and events - don't rely on the interpretations of news media or others.
    

by : John Gaines
online trading, currency trading, financial service

Position Sizing™ and your personal psychology are the two most important aspects of trading and they are probably the two most neglected topics. Chapter 14 of the second edition of Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, is all about helping you understand the importance of position sizing.

Before we discuss this topic, let me give you some important background information. I tend to think of trading systems by the distribution of R-multiples that they generate. And the average R (or mean R) of the system's R-multiple distribution is the expectancy of the system. It tells you what to expect from the average trade.

So let me give you a simple trading system, one that is probably much simpler than any you'd trade. Twenty percent of the trades are 10R winners and the rest of the trades are losers - 70% are 1R losers and the remaining 10% are 5R losers. Is this a good system? Well, if you want a lot of winners, then it certainly isn't - it only has 20% winners. But if you look at the average R for the system it's 0.8R. That means on the average, you'd make 0.8R per trade over many trades. Thus, when it's phrased in terms of expectancy, it's a winning system.

Let's say that you made 80 trades with this system in a year. On the average you'd end up making 64R - which is excellent. If you allowed R to represent 1% of your equity (which is one way to do position sizing), then you'd be up about 64% at the end of the year.

I frequently play a marble game with this R-multiple distribution to teach people about trading. The R-multiple distribution is represented by marbles in a bag. The marbles are draw out one at a time and replaced. The audience is given 100,000 to play with and they all get the same trades.

So let's say we do 30 trades, and they come out as shown in the table:

R-Multiples Draw In A Game
-1R	-5R	-1R
-1R	-1R	-1R
-1R	-1R	+10R
-5R	-1R	-1R
-1R	-1R	+10R
+10R	-1R	-1R
-1R	-1R	-1R
-1R	-1R	-5R
-1R	-1R	+10R
+10R	-1R	+10R
+8R	-14R	+30R

If you look at the bottom row, you see the total R-multiple distribution after each ten trades. After the first 10 we were up +8R, we then had 12 losers in a row and were down 14R after the next 10 trades. And finally we had a good run on the last 10 trades, with four winners, getting 30R for the ten trades. Over the 30 trades we were up 24R. And if you divide 24R by 20 trades is gives us a sample expectancy of 0.8R. Thus, our sample expectancy was exactly the same as the expectancy of the marble bag. That doesn't happen often, but it does happen.

Now let's say that you are playing the game and your only job is to decide how much to risk on each trade or how to position size the game. How much money do you think you'd make or lose? Well, in a typical game like this, 1/3 of the audience will go bankrupt (i.e., they won't survive the first five losers or the streak of 12 losses in a row); another 1/3 of the audience will lose money; and the last third will typically have made a huge amount of money - sometimes over a million dollars. And in an audience of say 100 people, except for the 33 or so who are at zero, I'll probably have 67 different equity levels.

That shows you the power of position sizing. Everyone in the audience got the same trades, those shown in the table. Thus, the only variable working was how much they bet or their position sizing. And through that one variable we had final equities than ranged from zero to over a million dollars. That's how important position sizing is. And by the way, I've played this game hundreds of times, getting similar results each time.

Position sizing is that important and I'd suggest that you take a look at chapter 14 of my book because many people have told me that it turned their trading around, making them winners instead of losers. Next week, I'll tell you a lot more about position sizing - how to do it and what its purpose is.

Dr. Van K Tharp
TradingEducation.com

Ray Dalio explains the various strategies on offer for those who wish to hedge their currency exposure – the prudent thing to do when international exposure reaches 15 per cent of a portfolio.

Investing internationally is a package deal. One gets two exposures – the underlying asset and the currency – wrapped into one. These exposures, however, are separable through currency hedging. International investors can and should decide first, how much of each to have and second, how to independently manage these exposures.

Making these decisions, creating a currency hedging plan, is prudent when the international exposure reaches 15 per cent to 20 per cent of a total portfolio. Failing to do so leaves a large, inadvertently acquired, unmanaged risk in the portfolio. The purpose of this article is to provide a basic overview of the key issues that investors should address in developing a hedging strategy.

A general rule to bear in mind when creating your hedging strategy, you should follow the same steps you would follow to decide on any exposure in your portfolio: most importantly, you should decide on the appropriate strategic exposure to foreign currency and whether this exposure should be actively or passively managed.

What should the strategic exposure be?

Phrased differently, assuming no market view, how much foreign currency exposure should I have in my portfolio? The process you should use to answer this question should be the same as the process you use to determine your asset allocation mix. It should be based on the expected returns, risks and correlations of currencies.

Once you have decided on the amount you want to keep in your portfolio, the hedge ratio you set should be the amount that leaves you with your desired net currency exposure. For example, if you determine that you would like to have 10 per cent of your portfolio exposed to foreign currency, and you currently have 20 per cent, you would set a benchmark of 50 per cent hedged. Rather than determining the appropriate percentage to be hedged, you should determine a desired strategic currency exposure and hedge to achieve it. That hedged amount will be your benchmark.

So what is the right strategic exposure to have? As mentioned, that depends on your assessment of the expected returns and risks of currencies, as well as the expected correlations with other exposures in the portfolio. Because currency movements are zero sum – for one currency to go up, another must go down – it is probably best to assume that the expected return is zero, although the actual return might be quite different. This simply means the expected return is zero. The standard deviation of a typical currency portfolio has been about 11 per cent over the past 25 years, which is also a reasonable assumption going forward. The correlations with the other assets in the portfolio depend on the assets, but in general are quite close to zero.

Where will plugging these numbers into a portfolio optimiser take you? While there are a wide range of outcomes depending on unrelated factors (such as the choice of assets in your overall portfolio), there are some common outcomes. Generally speaking, analysis will lead investors to hedge away currency risks, such that the amount left is not greater than 10 per cent to 15 per cent of the portfolio. If your international investments equal 20 per cent to 30 per cent, that might lead to normally being 50 per cent hedged. If your international investments comprise only 10 per cent to 15 per cent of your portfolio, you might opt to remain unhedged.

There are only two characteristics which are unique to currencies that you need to understand to solve for the right strategic exposure:

1. it costs money to hedge and
2. currency exposures are incremental to other exposures, not instead of them.

Concerning the first point, the expected return of being hedged is slightly less than that of being unhedged because of the transaction costs of hedging. These are typically five to 10 basis points (if done passively), so it should be assumed that a hedged portfolio will have a five to 10 basis point lower return than an unhedged portfolio. Given this, you need to assess incremental benefit, what is it worth to reduce or eliminate an exposure that has a standard deviation of 11 per cent and no expected return? One typically sees that risk reduction from hedging occurs in a non-linear way; the benefits of the first 25 per cent or 50 per cent of hedging are much greater than those coming from next 25 per cent or 50 per cent. For this reason, it is rarely the case that being 100 per cent hedged is appropriate.

Regarding the second point, because currency exposures are incremental to other exposures, not a replacement for, lower risk is achieved by having less currency exposure versus more.

Currencies have little or no correlation with other assets in the portfolio. One might think that this is a reason to keep them (i.e. remain unhedged) because they would diversify, hence reduce a portfolio’s risk. In fact, the reverse is the case: having significant currency exposure in a portfolio increases risk, even though currencies are uncorrelated with other assets. This is because currency exposure is additive to other exposures. Normally replacing a higher correlation asset with a lower correlation asset reduces risk because there is a substitution of risk while total exposure is unchanged. When you increase overall exposure (e.g. buy gold futures as an overlay on a portfolio), the effect is to increase portfolio risk, even if the correlation were negative. Similarly, when reducing currency exposure, you will almost certainly reduce portfolio risk, despite currency’s low correlations.

There is only one other point that should be made before concluding the discussion of strategic exposure: the time horizon is relevant. The longer the time horizon, the less risky currency will appear because over a long enough time horizon, its effect on the return approaches zero. If time horizon is a consideration, it is important to understand how long you must wait to be unconcerned about currency risk. Based on past currency movements, in order to be 90 per cent confident that currencies will have an annual return of less than -1 per cent to +1 per cent, you would have to wait 325 years. For most investors, that is too long to patiently accept the unhedged currency risk.

Once desired strategic exposure is determined, you should focus on benchmark exposure and the hedge ratio that gets you there. There are four possible benchmarks – 100 per cent unhedged, 100 per cent hedged, partially hedged (e.g. 50 per cent) and option hedged. All four can be obtained passively. Option hedged benchmarks (e.g. buying puts to hedge the currency exposure) are sometime used instead of a partially hedged benchmark where the investor is more inclined to have currency losses come in smaller, more frequent doses than larger, infrequent amounts. These hedges should not be used as an alternative to fully hedged or fully unhedged benchmarks because they will systematically deliver either more or less currency exposure than is consistent with your strategic objective.

If you choose an option benchmark, it is essential that the one you pick is consistent with your strategic objectives. For example, some options are consistent with a 50 per cent hedged objective, while others are not. Their deltas, sensitivity to price changes, will be broadly equivalent to desired hedged ratios. When choosing an option hedge instead of a corresponding partially hedged benchmark (e.g. 50 per cent), it is also essential to measure the actual performance in relation to the passive option hedge, not the partially hedged alternative. That is because options have different systematic risks than their corresponding partial hedges. For example, options will do better when the markets move a long way directionally. If an active manager is operating to an option mandate, but is being measured against a 50 per cent hedged benchmark, the differences in returns of the manager and the benchmark will be the systematic risk and the manager’s alpha combined. As a result, one cannot distinguish how well the manager is performing from how well options are doing relative to the 50 per cent hedged. For example, a manager could outperform the fixed hedge ratio but underperform the option hedge alternative, giving the mistaken impression that the manager added value when in reality he did not. That is why the benchmark should always be the investor’s passive alternative. For most investors, the option hedged strategy is inconsistent with strategic objectives.

Active or passive?

The only purpose of active management is to add value to the strategic exposure’s passive return. The ‘active’ vs. ‘passive’ decision should be made for currency the same way it is made for other markets: based on expectations for value-added. This statement is true for all managers, whether managing to a fixed benchmark (100 per cent hedged, 100 per cent unhedged or partially hedged), or an option hedged benchmark. The investor should specify the benchmark and study the manager’s performance relative to it.

Investors should also understand and assess how a manager attempts to add value. There are only two ways to add value: fundamentally and technically. Tactical deviations from a benchmark might differ (e.g. price direction, interest rate carries, volatility, etc.), but a manager’s approach to making this bet will be fundamental, technical or some mixture of the two. Fundamental analysis is based on the belief that there are cause-and-effect relationships that need to be understood in order for pricing anomalies to be sensibly identified and acted upon. Technical analysis is based on the assumption that past price relationships are indicative of future price relationships. Whether betting on price, volatility or anything else, managers follow one or both approaches. In assessing currency managers, like any other manager, you should decide on which approach is more consistent with your own investment philosophy.

Since you would only hire an active manager because you expect they are likely to add value, it is worth knowing how they have added value in the past. Brian Strange of Currency Performance Analytics conducted a comprehensive study of currency manager performance in 1998. He studied the performance of 158 currency overlay mandates managed over a 10-year time frame and determined that currency overlay managers have added considerable value, about 1.9 per cent per year on average. Since then, several follow-up studies by other consultants have arrived at the same basic conclusions.

When examining individual managers, it is often difficult to compare their value-added (alpha) because virtually no two client mandates are the same. Judging performance against hedged and unhedged mandates is made additionally difficult by the effect that the market’s direction has on the alpha. For example, managers who are operating to an unhedged benchmark will find it easy to add value when foreign currencies are falling, while managers who are operating to a fully hedged benchmark will find it tough. To achieve the best perspective concerning the managers’ ability to add value, you should examine performance across mandates.
In summary, the alternatives an investor must decide between are expressed in figure one.

An investor’s benchmark can be either a fixed hedge ratio (e.g., 50 per cent hedged) or an option hedge. Active managers can be hired to beat the benchmark, or passive managers can be used to match it. When you are able to check the box that best suits your objectives, you will have moved most of the way toward having a currency hedging plan. Selecting specific managers and deciding on other aspects of the mandate (e.g. is cross-hedging appropriate) is also required, but these choices will be vastly easier to make once you have made the core strategic decision.

Ray Dalio is president and chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates.

Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It requires time, market knowledge and market understanding and a large amount of self restraint.

Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very 'fast market' which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders' timing will be off. Don't loose heart if you loose on some trades. Experienced and seasoned traders do not expect to generate returns on every trade.

Let's enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:

Trade with money you can afford to lose:
Trading forex markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are 'involved with your money' the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be traded.

If in doubt, stay out:
If you're unsure about a trade and find you're hesitating, stay on the sidelines.

Trade logical transaction sizes:
Margin trading allows the forex trader a very large amount of leverage, trading at full margin capacity can make for some very large profits or losses on an account. Scaling your trades so that you may re-enter the market or make transactions on other currencies is generally wiser. In short, don't trade amounts that can potentially wipe you out and don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Identify the state of the market:
What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it look like a new trend that's forming. Getting a clear picture of the market situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.

Determine what time frame you're trading on:
Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one must extrapolate in his mind's eye the movement that one expects to happen. Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to define from the outset if you'll be 'scalping' (trying to get a few points off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also determine what chart period you're looking at. If you trade many times a day, there's no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph, you'll probably want to analyse 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is important to know the different time periods when various financial centers enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and liquidity and can influence market movements.

Time your trade:
You can be right about a potential market movement but be too early or too late when you enter the trade. Timing considerations are twofold, an expected market figure like CPI, retail sales or a federal reserve decision can consolidate a movement that's already underway. Timing your move means knowing what's expected and taking into account all considerations before trading. Technical analysis can help you identify when and at what price a move may occur.

Gauge market sentiment:
Market sentiment is what most of the market is perceived to be feeling about the market and therefore what it is doing or will do. This is basically about trend. You may have heard the term 'the trend is your friend', this basically means that if you're in the right direction with a strong trend you will make successful trades. This of course is very simplistic, a trend is capable of reversal at any time. Technical and fundamental data can indicate however if the trend has begun long ago and if it is strong or weak.

Market expectation:
Market expection relates to what most people are expecting as far as upcoming news is concerned. If people are expecting an interest rate to rise and it does, then there usually will not be much of a movement because the information will already have been 'discounted' by the market, alternatively if the adverse happens, markets will usually react violently.

Use what other traders use:
In a perfect world, every trader would be looking at a 14 day RSI and making trading decisions based on that. If that was the case, when RSI would go under the 30 level, everyone would buy and by consequence the price would rise. Needless to say, the world is not perfect and not all market participants follow the same technical indicators, draw the same trendlines and identify the same support & resistance levels. The great diversity of opinions and techniques used translates directly into price diversity. Traders however have a tendency to use a limited variety of technical tools. The most common are 9 and 14 day RSI, obvious trendlines and support levels, fibonnacci retracement, MACD and 9, 20 & 40 day exponential moving averages. The closer you get to what most traders are looking at, the more precise your estimations will be. The reason for this is simple arithmetic, larger numbers of buyers than sellers at a certain price will move the market up from that price and vice-versa.

Source:
www.eagletraders.com

Trading the Forex market has became very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.

Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators (a moving average (MA) crossover, overbought/oversold conditions in an oscillator, etc.) But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.

There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as “the MA crossover made the price go up,” but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I'm trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.

Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn't want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.

Don't get us wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.

So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?

First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.

Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.

Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.

Source:
www.straightforex.com

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

by Jimmy Young
EURUSDTrader

Do you think adaptation to the realities of the market is the most important thing?

Many times in the past I’ve written about the need to adapt, the need to be able to change your behavior relative to the market because the markets are ever changing.

I’ve stated that mechanical systems may be workable, but for only a short time relative to the life of markets. You must learn to trade what you see and to understand what you see on a chart.

When I first began trading there was no such things as futures contracts for foreign currencies. Why didn’t they exist? Because there was no need for them! In the 1970’s all that changed when the US dollar went off the gold standard and began to float against other currencies. Following that, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began to create currency futures to provide a place where currency traders could hedge the risks associated with dealing in foreign currencies. Some of these risks are direct and some are indirect. Direct risk is involved for those who deal directly in foreign exchange. Indirect risk involves companies who export or import and receive payments or make payments in the currency of another country.

Ever since currency futures were created, they have been in a state of flux. More recently, for purposes of futures trading, currency gyrations have centered on a massive move away from currency futures to more direct trading in the forex markets. Currency futures, while maintaining their volume and open interest figures, are actually less liquid than they had been previously. Volume and open interest do not reveal the picture of what is happening in the currency futures pits. Volume and open interest levels are being maintained by fewer and fewer futures traders.

In the period from 1992 to the present, we’ve witnessed currency futures moving from “red-hot” to “cool” and now hot again insofar as speculators are concerned. Foreign exchange, which in 1992 was one of the hottest plays, first turned dull and then back again to exciting.

That this has happened can be seen in areas of which most futures traders are ignorant. Five years ago foreign currency traders were being paid huge salaries and anyone with a track record could virtually name his price. Following that, currency traders were no longer in great demand. Now, again, there is a huge demand for successful currency traders.

Currency futures are but a small representation of the $1.5 trillion dollar foreign exchange market. Professional currency traders use forex, forwarding contracts, derivatives of all kinds, and the futures pits, to deploy their various trading and hedging strategies. Looking at only the futures is like the blind man trying to tell what an elephant is like by feeling only the tusks.

In past years, foreign exchange desks at banks, insurance companies, brokers, and other institutions were seen closing down and firing hundreds of employees. Today, they are again looking for currency traders.

In the 1990s, Midland Bank closed its foreign New York office laying off dozens of people. Frankfurt Bank had pulled out of New York and Tokyo closed down its foreign exchange desk. At that time, the world’s largest foreign exchange trader was Citicorp. In the D-Mark alone, they shrank from 39 traders working at 17 different locations around the world to 4 D-Mark traders all working in one room. Keep in mind that these were traders who had been to a greater or lesser extent using the currency futures. The result at that time was that there were fewer big fluctuations in the currency futures than there once were and therefore much less profit.

However, today, just the opposite is happening. Central banks are presently making much greater interventions in the currency markets. They have stopped publishing targeted exchange rates. Such action by the central banks leaves currency speculators at a loss for what to do, and the result has been a huge surge in forex trading.

Because today forex brokers abound and are actively marketing the idea of currency speculation, it is having a profound effect on the foreign exchange planning of individuals, companies, and nations.

If some day the major currencies would be the US dollar, the J-Yen and the euro, who would need thousands of traders to trade them? There would be far fewer currency misalignments to provide a basis for trading. But that is not the way the world is moving. The picture I just presented ignores the rise of China as a major economic force on the world scene. Almost certainly, the Chinese currency will become a major trading vehicle. The same is true for other emerging countries. Some of them will no doubt have important currencies from the point of view of world trade. But will these currencies be traded in the futures markets or in forex?

The changes in just this one area – currency trading – are an example of how things rapidly change and point out the need for traders to adapt. There have of course, been many other changes in recent years. The advent of all-electronic markets has produced markets of a completely different kind. Computers have brought about the ability to trade in various time frames. New exchanges have created new markets and new contracts – so many, in fact, that it is difficult to know exactly where to direct ones trading efforts. It is now possible to trade virtually around the clock. It seems that somewhere, some market is trading.

by Joe Ross
Trading Educators Inc.

Picture yourself as a successful forex trading professional. You feel very good knowing that you know exactly how to diagnose the technical indicators on your forex trading platform. You also feel very good knowing you can implement sound money management along with the mental discipline all forex traders must have. Below we will take a look at why technical analysis, money management and trading psychology are the three keys to forex trading success.

Forex training is very important if you want to get into the world of forex trading. The reason that forex training is so vital is because the forex market is extremely competitive and volatile. Forex training is available via online courses, advanced trading workshops and one on one mentoring. The best place to get forex training is from someone who is already involved in forex trading. Quality forex training is the key to success. If you want to make money and become a successful forex trader the proper forex training is the key.

1. Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is one of the keys to success for a forex trader. If you are new to the study of technical analysis, you may be wondering just what technical analysis is. Technical analysis is the study of market action, primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends. Another important foundation of technical analysis is that price movements are not random, but tend to trend in some direction most of the time. Technical traders use trading information such as previous prices and trading volume along with mathematical indicators to make their trading decisions. Although technical analysis is definitely no panacea, I think that it can be combined with fundamentals and money management to produce excellent results.

2. Money Management
In many ways, forex money management is looked at as a burdensome and highly unpleasant activity. Forex money management is part and parcel of any good trading system. The performance of a forex trading system, in terms of profits, drawdown, or any other parameter you would like to measure, depends on both the trading system itself and the money management rules it follows. Forex money management is one of the most important things you can learn before you actually begin making live trades. The practice or so called demo account will help you get acquainted with the world of online trading and find your own forex money management method. Taking the time to do research, learn good currency trading techniques and making yourself knowledgeable on matters of good forex money management is only going to pay off for you in spades in the end of it all. Besides knowing which currencies to trade and recognizing entry and exit signals, the successful trader has to manage his resources and integrate money management into his trading plan.

3. Trading Psychology
Trading psychology is one of the keys to investment success. Trading psychology is so important because day trading can be a very emotional business. Discipline comes into play when battling fear and greed. One of the basic tenets in day trading psychology is to know who you are fully and completely. In a trading business, one has to be in the right state of mind to support your discipline in this arena full of uncertainties. As we can see, without both a sound method and good discipline to implement it trading may not be successful.
Forex trading is a demanding and potentially profitable endeavor for trained and experienced investors. If you don’t get quality forex training, you are likely to lose money. However, having the proper amount of forex trading training is essential to anyone seriously looking into profiting from the forex market.

We're finished but you're just starting. Your next steps should be to discover and/or implement the ideas discussed in this article. Find a dependable forex trading system. Be disciplined. Implement a reliable money management system. Do these 3 things and you will be on the fast track to becoming a profitable forex trading pro.

By: Kenneth Aikens


Article Source: http://www.articlecafe.net

Tip 1. Gamblers go to casino. All unproved, spontaneous actions in Forex trading — are a part of pure gambling.
Any attempt to trade without analysis and studying the market is equal to a game. Game is fun except when you are losing real money...

Tip 2. Never invest money into a real Forex account until you practice on a Forex Demo account!
Allow at least 2 month for demo trading. Consider this: 90% of beginners fail to succeed in the real money market only because of lack of knowledge, practice and discipline. Those remaining 10% of successful traders had been sharpening and shaping their skills on demo accounts for years before entering the real market. A good demo account to start practicing with could be, for example, FXGame from Oanda.

Tip 3. Go with the trend!
Trend is your friend. Trade with the trend to maximize your chances to succeed. Trading against the trend won't "kill" a trader, but will definitely require more attention, nerves and sharp skills to rich trading goals.

Tip 4. Always take a look at the time frame bigger than the one you've chosen to trade in.
It gives the bigger picture of market price movements and so helps to clearly define the trend. For example, when trading in 15 minute time frame, take a look at 1 hour chart; trading hourly would require obtaining a picture of daily, weekly price movements. If a trend is hard to spot — choose a bigger time frame. Up and down market patterns are always present. Always make sure you know the dominant trend, unless you are a scalper. Scalpers have no need to spend their time studying big trends, what's happening in the market here and now (during 5-10 minute time frame) should be of only importance to a Forex scalper.

Tip 5. Never risk more than 2-3% of the total trading account.
One important difference between a successful and an unsuccessful trader is that the first is able to survive under unfavorable conditions on the market, while an unsuccessful trader will blow up his account after 5-10 unprofitable trades in the row. Even with the same trading system 2 traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in money management approach. To introduce you to money management, let's get one fact: losing 50% of total account requires making 100% return from the rest of money just to restore the original balance.

Tip 6. Put emotions down. Trade calm.
Don't try to revenge after losing the trade. Don't be greedy by adding lots of positions when winning.Overreaction blocks clear thinking and as a result will cost you money. Overtrading can shake your money management and dramatically increase trading risks.

Tip 7. Choose the time frame that is right for you.
Choosing wise means that you are comfortable and have time enough to analyze the market, place and close orders etc. Some people can't wait for hours for the price to make a move, they like action and therefore prefer smaller time frames. On the contrary, for others 10-15 minutes is a hustle to be able to make the right decision.

Tip 8. Not trading or standing aside is a position.
When in doubt — stay out. If it is not clear where the market will move — don't trade. In this case saving present capital is and absolutely better choice than risking and losing money.

Tip 9. Learn to use protective stops. Respect them and don't move.
Hoping that market will turn in your direction is a very delusive hope. By moving a stop loss further a trader increases his chances to end up with much bigger loss. When holding to a losing trade too long, and even if funds permit, traders as a rule are very reluctant to accept big losses, thus often continue "hoping for best". In the mean time invested money is stuck in the open trade for unknown period of time (weeks and even months) and cannot be used for opening new positions. Not working money — dead money. Also this will result in constant interest payments for holding open positions.

Tip 10. "Keep it simple, stupid" — applies to indicators, signals and trading strategies.
Too much information will create a controversial picture of where to trade and when not to. To avoid lots of confusion create a simple but working method of trading Forex.

Tip 11. Think about risk/reward ratio before entering each trade.
How much money can you lose in this trade? How much can you gain? Now, make a decision if the trade is worth entering.Example: if trader is looking for possible 35 pips gain and possible 25 pips of loss, such conditions are not worth trading. Compare it with the situation when a trader has 100-120 pips of potential gain and only 10-20 pips of possible loss. This is the trade to open!

Tip 12. Never add positions to a losing trade. Do add positions when the trade has proven to be profitable.
Don't allow a couple of losing trades in a row become a snowball of losing trades. When it is obviously not a good day, turn the monitor off. Often not trading for one day can help to break a chain of consecutive losses. Trying to get revenge can often make things worse.

Tip 13. Let your profits run.
Let your position be open for as long as the market wishes to reward you. Of course, for this traders need a good exit strategy, otherwise they risk to give all profits back...
Running two or more open trades gives an option to close some positions earlier and keep others running for higher profits.

Tip 14. Cut your losses short.
It's better to finish unprofitable trade quickly than wait for the situation to get worse. Don't put a stop loss too far — it's your money you risk. Better calculate the best spot to enter when a potential loss would be minimized. Again: respect your stop and don't move it "cherishing hopes".

Tip 15. Trade currency pairs in respect to their active market hours.
Learn about overlapping market hours: when two markets are open and highest volume of trades is conducted. For example, Australian and Japanese trading sessions are overlapped from 8pm to 1 am EST. At that time trader can successfully trade AUD/JPY currency pair.

Tip 16. Choose the right day to trade.
This recomendation is often wrongly taken as an optional thing, because everyone knows that Forex market is open 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Yet, choosing the time to trade can make a difference between successful and hopeless trading.It's proved and highly recommended not to trade on Mondays, when the market has recently awaken and is making first "probation steps" to form a new or confirm a current trend; and on Fridays afternoon, during the huge volume of closing trades. The best days to trade are Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays.

Tip 17. Learn about Fibonacci levels and how to use them for trading.
Fibonacci can be very helpful in trading, even partially using the study, for example, to determine the best exit, can bring traders to a new edge of trading.

Tip 18. Always ensure that a signaling bar/candle on the chart is fully formed and closed before you enter a trade.
A golden rule of trading: "Always trade what you see, not what you would like to see" is the best explanation here.

Tip 19. If you ask for someone else's advice as about how and when to trade
in other words, choose to rely on live trading signals from other traders, make sure you do it for your benefit, not for disaster. If you use such signals to discover how other traders do analysis and study on the price — you are on the right track and soon you'll be able to do analysis yourself.But if you're just blindly following recommendations and your only task is to push the correct button... think again.

Tip 20. Using a highly leveraged account comes at a cost.
It will, of course, give a trader more financial gear to trade, and also trader's broker will be happy as it will mean higher spread income for him. On the other side a trader signs up for additional risks that multiply with higher leverage in a "friendly tight" proportion.

Tip 21. Learn to measure trading success by the end of the day, week and then month and year.
Do not judge about your trading success on a single trade. To be successful traders don't need to win every trade, they also don't become rich in one trade — they need to be profitable in a long run.

Tip 22. There is no such thing as a secret approach to understanding the market.
Take the time to develop a solid trading system and find out that the secret to trading success lies in hard work and constant learning.

Source : http://www.freeforextips.net