Before I get myself into trouble, let me point out that there is no "Holy Grail" trading system in the world - not yet anyway. If there is, please let me know. I don't mind paying a thousand bucks for it. However, a trading system close to the "Holy Grail" is indeed possible and I'll show you how to develop it.

What moves Forex? Conventional thinking would imply economic fundamentals or factors such as the strength of a country's economy, which contributes to currency flows. Therefore, one would assume that everyone else would buy the US dollar against the British pound. Why not? The US economy is the largest in the world while that of Great Britain has fallen to fifth, behind the US, Japan, Germany and China.

The theory of "the bigger the economy is, the more attractive its currency will be" may be true but in reality, the sterling has advanced more against the dollar. Why is this so?

Let's dissect the market by taking a look at the players in the currency market. They are the financial institutions, commercial banks, insurance firms, pension funds, hedge funds, small funds, international businesses, private investors, retail traders and not forgetting, individuals. Each plays a part in determining the movement of a currency. We can divide them into two categories - "commercial" and "non-commercial".

The "commercials" engage in business activities requiring the use of currencies, whereas the "non-commercials" are into the Forex market for speculative purpose. Therefore the philosophies of the "commercials" and "non-commercials" are very much different - when the "commercials" buy, the "non-commercials" sell; and when the "commercials" sell, the "non-commercials" buy. It is this different point-of-view from two different types of traders, market makers or investors that moves the Forex market.

We have gone through the easy part of identifying the movers of the market. The question now is how to use this piece of information to trade Forex successfully and how to use the above information to develop a "Holy Grail" (almost) trading system.

Earlier, we have determined who the movers of the currency market are. The "commercials" are involved in a nature of business that requires Forex transactions. Examples would be commercial banks, insurance firms and international companies. On the other hand, the "non-commercials" are in the market solely for speculative purpose. Examples would be hedge funds, small funds, private investors, retail traders and individuals.
Best times to trade

Even though the Forex market opens 24 hours a day, 5 days a week, there are specific times in a day where the volume of transactions are high. These are the London session (3AM EST to noon EST), New York session (8AM EST to 5PM EST) and Tokyo session (7PM EST to 4AM EST), in the order of market volume size. Therefore the most profitable trades, in terms of price movement, are usually found in these times. It is advisable for traders to trade during these times.

Best currencies to trade
Every nation in the world has its own currency - the US dollar, Canadian dollar, Russian ruble, South African rand, Mexican peso, Thai baht, Indian rupee, and so on. However the most traded currencies, with the highest volume and liquidity, are the euro, Japanese yen, British pound and the Swiss franc, with euro (EUR/USD) being the most traded currency pair.

Tools of the trade
When it comes to trading Forex, there's only two methods that are utilized. The first is fundamental analysis and the other is technical analysis. Many traders argue that either one is better than the other. I prefer to use both. I will determine my entry and exit points based on technical analysis with the support of economic data or fundamental analysis. This will minimize the risk involved in my trades because the market doesn't lie. Technical analysis will show you why price is behaving in a certain manner and fundamental analysis will prove that you are right.

Best market to trade
Because the strength of a country's economy, which contributes to currency flows, doesn't just change on any external events, currencies tend to trend well. It takes some time for a material change in an economy's strength and therefore the direction of its currency. Due to this reason alone, Forex is a very trader-friendly market, compared to equities, futures, options, etc.

How to best trade the Forex market?
This is the million-dollar question. Remember our "commercial" and "non-commercial" friends? These guys will battle to see who will win ultimately. Here's how it works:
"Commercials" consisting of commercial banks, insurance firms and large companies are loaded with deep pockets and nearly unlimited funds when put together. When the price of a currency declines, the "commercials" will load their positions - they will buy because price is "cheap". When demand exceeds supply, price advances and the "commercials" will unload their positions - they will sell at a higher price for a profit.

Who will they sell to? It's the "non-commercials"! But before we come to a conclusion who the obvious losers in this game are, let me tell you that not all "commercials" will profit from the above example and not all "non-commercials" will lose. It all depends on when the entry or exit is made. Confused?

Let me explain. When price declines and the "commercials" buy, they are practically buying into a falling price (this is possible because of the large funds at their disposal) in the hope that price will eventually advance and they will profit by selling at a higher price. However, there's no guarantee that 100,000 lots bought will each be sold at a higher price. It all depends on market forces - nobody can dictate or control the movement of a currency.

As for the "non-commercials", when price advances, they are practically buying into a rising price in the hope that price will advance even more for them to profit from it. As is the case above, market forces will determine whether this will hold true for the "non-commercials".

What does it all mean?
If you analyze the above, you will notice one common theme. In order to profit from the market, timing is essential - "buy low and sell high". Easier said than done! Every trader knows this. So how can one time his or her entry or exit?
Tricks of the trade

Here's how you should trade the currency market. You should develop your "Holy Grail" (almost) trading system based on the following. It worked for me, which is why it should work for you too.

1. The market players usually based their trades on certain predefined price levels. They don't just enter or exit whenever they like. These price levels are the Support and Resistance that many of us come to know of. Currencies tend to move well between these Support and Resistance levels. The most common methods to determine the Support and Resistance levels are Fibonacci, Pivot Points, Trendlines and the Exponential Moving Averages.

2. When the support and resistance levels are determined, the next step is to look at price action at these levels - whether price will break through or reverse. The most common method to analyze price action is through the use of Candlestick and Chart Patterns.

3. Once you have determined the entry point from the above two steps, boost your confidence to trigger the trade with the use of indicators such as Stochastics, RSI and MACD. Even though these indicators are lagging in nature, the appearance of divergence in Stochastics, RSI and/or MACD is not!
4. Always keep a wary eye on the latest economic data which affects the currency - beware of newsbreak which includes release of important economic data. Newsbreak of this kind will influence price movement significantly and render the technical analysis above meaningless.

5. Remember to implement an appropriate "stop-loss" in case price goes against you - never risk more than 3% of your account per trade.

Here you have it. I have provided the five (5) essential steps for you to develop an almost "Holy Grail" trading system for yourself. All you need to do now is to try each specific method outlined above and see which works best for you. Paper trade using historical data - practice until you get it right, keeping in mind the five (5) steps above.

About the Author
K Ronald is a Forex trader and mentor at MBC Solutions Ltd. He is the co-developer of the Millennium Trading System which is widely used around the world. This article is courtesy of http://www.mbc-solutions.com

Source : www.actionforex.com

Why do hundreds of thousands online traders and investors trade the forex market every day, and how do they make money doing it?

Trade pairs, not currencies - Like any relationship, you have to know both sides. Success or failure in forex trading depends upon being right about both currencies and how they impact one another, not just one.

Knowledge is Power - When starting out trading forex online, it is essential that you understand the basics of this market if you want to make the most of your investments.

1. The main forex influencer is global news and events. For example, say an ECB statement is released on European interest rates which typically will cause a flurry of activity. Most newcomers react violently to news like this and close their positions and subsequently miss out on some of the best trading opportunities by waiting until the market calms down. The potential in the forex market is in the volatility, not in its tranquility.
   

2. Unambitious trading - Many new traders will place very tight orders in order to take very small profits. This is not a sustainable approach because although you may be profitable in the short run (if you are lucky), you risk losing in the longer term as you have to recover the difference between the bid and the ask price before you can make any profit and this is much more difficult when you make small trades than when you make larger ones.
   
3. Over-cautious trading - Like the trader who tries to take small incremental profits all the time, the trader who places tight stop losses with a retail forex broker is doomed. As we stated above, you have to give your position a fair chance to demonstrate its ability to produce. If you don't place reasonable stop losses that allow your trade to do so, you will always end up undercutting yourself and losing a small piece of your deposit with every trade.
   
4. Independence - If you are new to forex, you will either decide to trade your own money or to have a broker trade it for you. So far, so good. But your risk of losing increases exponentially if you either of these two things:
   

   Interfere with what your broker is doing on your behalf (as his strategy might require a long gestation period);
   

   Seek advice from too many sources - multiple input will only result in multiple losses. Take a position, ride with it and then analyse the outcome - by yourself, for yourself.
   

5. Tiny margins - Margin trading is one of the biggest advantages in trading forex as it allows you to trade amounts far larger than the total of your deposits. However, it can also be dangerous to novice traders as it can appeal to the greed factor that destroys many forex traders. The best guideline is to increase your leverage in line with your experience and success.
   
6. No strategy - The aim of making money is not a trading strategy. A strategy is your map for how you plan to make money. Your strategy details the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risk. Without a strategy, you may become one of the 90% of new traders that lose their money.
   
7. Trading Off-Peak Hours - Professional FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds posses a huge advantage over small retail traders during off-peak hours (between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they can hedge their positions and move them around when there is far small trade volume is going through (meaning their risk is smaller). The best advice for trading during off peak hours is simple - don't.
   
8. The only way is up/down - When the market is on its way up, the market is on its way up. When the market is going down, the market is going down. That's it. There are many systems which analyse past trends, but none that can accurately predict the future. But if you acknowledge to yourself that all that is happening at any time is that the market is simply moving, you'll be amazed at how hard it is to blame anyone else.
   
9. Trade on the news - Most of the really big market moves occur around news time. Trading volume is high and the moves are significant; this means there is no better time to trade than when news is released. This is when the big players adjust their positions and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow.
   
10. Exiting Trades - If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out. Don't compound your mistake by staying in and hoping for a reversal. If you're in a winning trade, don't talk yourself out of the position because you're bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.
    
11. Don't trade too short-term - If you are aiming to make less than 20 points profit, don't undertake the trade. The spread you are trading on will make the odds against you far too high.
    
12. Don't be smart - The most successful traders I know keep their trading simple. They don't analyse all day or research historical trends and track web logs and their results are excellent.
    
13. Tops and Bottoms - There are no real "bargains" in trading foreign exchange. Trade in the direction the price is going in and you're results will be almost guaranteed to improve.
    
14. Ignoring the technicals- Understanding whether the market is over-extended long or short is a key indicator of price action. Spikes occur in the market when it is moving all one way.
    
15. Emotional Trading - Without that all-important strategy, you're trades essentially are thoughts only and thoughts are emotions and a very poor foundation for trading. When most of us are upset and emotional, we don't tend to make the wisest decisions. Don't let your emotions sway you.
    
16. Confidence - Confidence comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it's very difficult to regain it; the trick is not to go off half-cocked; learn the business before you trade. Remember, knowledge is power.

The second and final part of this report clearly and simply details more essential tips on how to avoid the pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

1. Take it like a man - If you decide to ride a loss, you are simply displaying stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Sticking to a bad position ruins lots of traders - permanently. Try to remember that the market often behaves illogically, so don't get commit to any one trade; it's just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; it's ongoing regular performance over months and years that makes a good trader.
   
2. Focus - Fantasising about possible profits and then "spending" them before you have realised them is no good. Focus on your current position(s) and place reasonable stop losses at the time you do the trade. Then sit back and enjoy the ride - you have no real control from now on, the market will do what it wants to do.
   
3. Don't trust demos - Demo trading often causes new traders to learn bad habits. These bad habits, which can be very dangerous in the long run, come about because you are playing with virtual money. Once you know how your broker's system works, start trading small amounts and only take the risk you can afford to win or lose.
   
4. Stick to the strategy - When you make money on a well thought-out strategic trade, don't go and lose half of it next time on a fancy; stick to your strategy and invest profits on the next trade that matches your long-term goals.
   
5. Trade today - Most successful day traders are highly focused on what's happening in the short-term, not what may happen over the next month. If you're trading with 40 to 60-point stops focus on what's happening today as the market will probably move too quickly to consider the long-term future. However, the long-term trends are not unimportant; they will not always help you though if you're trading intraday.
   

6. The clues are in the details - The bottom line on your account balance doesn't tell the whole story. Consider individual trade details; analyse your losses and the telling losing streaks. Generally, traders that make money without suffering significant daily losses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance in the long term.
   

7. Simulated Results - Be very careful and wary about infamous "black box" systems. These so-called trading signal systems do not often explain exactly how the trade signals they generate are produced. Typically, these systems only show their track record of extraordinary results - historical results. Successfully predicting future trade scenarios is altogether more complex. The high-speed algorithmic capabilities of these systems provide significant retrospective trading systems, not ones which will help you trade effectively in the future.
   

8. Get to know one cross at a time - Each currency pair is unique, and has a unique way of moving in the marketplace. The forces which cause the pair to move up and down are individual to each cross, so study them and learn from your experience and apply your learning to one cross at a time.
9. Risk Reward - If you put a 20 point stop and a 50 point profit your chances of winning are probably about 1-3 against you. In fact, given the spread you're trading on, it's more likely to be 1-4. Play the odds the market gives you.
   

10. Trading for Wrong Reasons - Don't trade if you are bored, unsure or reacting on a whim. The reason that you are bored in the first place is probably because there is no trade to make in the first place. If you are unsure, it's probably because you can't see the trade to make, so don't make one.
    

11. Zen Trading- Even when you have taken a position in the markets, you should try and think as you would if you hadn't taken one. This level of detachment is essential if you want to retain your clarity of mind and avoid succumbing to emotional impulses and therefore increasing the likelihood of incurring losses. To achieve this, you need to cultivate a calm and relaxed outlook. Trade in brief periods of no more than a few hours at a time and accept that once the trade has been made, it's out of your hands.
    

12. Determination - Once you have decided to place a trade, stick to it and let it run its course. This means that if your stop loss is close to being triggered, let it trigger. If you move your stop midway through a trade's life, you are more than likely to suffer worse moves against you. Your determination must be show itself when you acknowledge that you got it wrong, so get out.
    

13. Short-term Moving Average Crossovers - This is one of the most dangerous trade scenarios for non professional traders. When the short-term moving average crosses the longer-term moving average it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. This is neither a bullish nor bearish indication, so don't fall into the trap of believing it is one.
    

14. Stochastic - Another dangerous scenario. When it first signals an exhausted condition that's when the big spike in the "exhausted" currency cross tends to occur. My advice is to buy on the first sign of an overbought cross and then sell on the first sign of an oversold one. This approach means that you'll be with the trend and have successfully identified a positive move that still has some way to go. So if percentage K and percentage D are both crossing 80, then buy! (This is the same on sell side, where you sell at 20).
    

15. One cross is all that counts - EURUSD seems to be trading higher, so you buy GBPUSD because it appears not to have moved yet. This is dangerous. Focus on one cross at a time - if EURUSD looks good to you, then just buy EURUSD.
    

16. Wrong Broker - A lot of FOREX brokers are in business only to make money from yours. Read forums, blogs and chats around the net to get an unbiased opinion before you choose your broker.
    
17. Too bullish - Trading statistics show that 90% of most traders will fail at some point. Being too bullish about your trading aptitude can be fatal to your long-term success. You can always learn more about trading the markets, even if you are currently successful in your trades. Stay modest, and keep your eyes open for new ideas and bad habits you might be falling in to.
    

18. Interpret forex news yourself - Learn to read the source documents of forex news and events - don't rely on the interpretations of news media or others.
    

by : John Gaines
online trading, currency trading, financial service